It is convincing, just not in the way he's spinning it. It convinces me he's a lame duck PM who's soon to be a dead duck. His goose is cooked, if you'll pardon the mixed waterfowl metaphors.
He can't be challenged again via VONC for a year but that didn't save May. She won a VONC but was gone in months and he'll go the same way.
The question is, can the Tory Party find an actual Tory within their ranks to replace him? After years of entryism by the likes of Hunt, May, Cameron, Soubry and Johnson himself, people who are left of traditional Tory ideology, they are thin on the ground.